Global businesses are operating in an era of relentless uncertainty as the world today is shaped by overlapping crises – geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and social upheaval. High-impact risks that were once dismissed as improbable are now frequent realities and the pace of disruption will show no signs of slowing through 2025. In this environment, organisations must go beyond reactionary measures and adopt a proactive and forward-looking approach to risk management that anticipates and adapts to an almost constant flow of challenges.
CritonGroup AI is a suite of tools designed to meet this need. With RiskMitigator, HazardHorizon, and RiskScenario, a broad range of businesses and organisations can streamline how they assess, forecast, and plan for complex risks and systemic disruption. While each bot is powerful on its own, they are designed to work seamlessly together, providing a comprehensive risk management solution that combines immediate insights and actionable mitigation, outlooks across variable time frames, and plausible scenarios for planning.
In a world where resilience depends on understanding, anticipating and preparing for the unexpected, these tools may serve as essential resources. By integrating strategic foresight, scenario planning, and actionable intelligence directly into decision-making processes, CritonGroup AI equips businesses to stay agile, informed, and ready to act—no matter what lies ahead.
Meet the CritonGroup AI Bots
RiskMitigator
For analysts tasked with assessing risks in volatile environments, RiskMitigator delivers fast, accurate, and actionable risk assessments tailored to local contexts. This tool automates workflows to ensure that recommendations in every report are thorough, timely, and aligned with the specific needs of multinational clients and their operations.
For multinational businesses operating in high-risk environments, RiskMitigator empowers decision-makers with the near instantaneous insights needed to safeguard operations, protect personnel, and strengthen organizational resilience.
Key capabilities
- Identifies and assesses 6-8 key country-specific risks
- Provides 4-5 targeted mitigation measures per risk
- Assigns detailed risk levels with probability ranges
- Conducts plausibility checks and refinements
- Produces assessments and recommendations to specific company needs
Detailed Features
- Performs two-iteration risk assessment with refinement steps
- Creates percentage-based risk level classifications
- Generates 4-5 observable indicators per identified risk
- Develops 4-5 targeted mitigation measures per risk
- Verifies feasibility & actionability of recommendations in local contexts
- Evaluates measure cost-effectiveness
- Incorporates cutting-edge technology and security solutions
- Output in table format for MS Word compatibility
- Integrates seamlessly with liveuamap.com to assess developing situations
Potential Use Cases
- Country Risk Assessments: Generate tailored assessments for high-risk regions, identifying key vulnerabilities and actionable mitigation strategies.
- Security Strategy Development: Design strategies that integrate industry best practices with specific local contexts and emerging threats.
- Expatriate Safety Protocols: Outline safety measures to protect personnel in volatile or conflict-prone regions.
- Corporate Risk Mitigation Planning: Provide organizations with clear, actionable steps to minimize operational risks.
- Operational Risk Management: Evaluate and address vulnerabilities in supply chains, infrastructure, or key operations.
HazardHorizon
For analysts responsible for forecasting and long-term planning, HazardHorizon provides structured, forward-looking risk outlooks across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. By identifying trends, drivers, and early warning signals, this tool equips analysts with the insights needed to anticipate emerging risks and inform strategic recommendations.
HazardHorizon also delivers the forward-looking insights multinational businesses need to stay ahead of emerging risks and seize opportunities. From geopolitical shifts to regulatory changes, this tool enables informed decision-making across all time horizons.
Key capabilities
- Analyzes risks across three distinct time frames
- Identifies key factors, trends, drivers and uncertainties
- Develops measurable indicators for monitoring
Detailed Features
- Analyzes short-term (3-6 months), medium-term (6-24 months), and long-term (2-5 years) risks
- Assesses impacts for countries and companies
- Develops observable or measurable risk indicators for each time frame
- Prioritises early warning signal indicators
- Generates three-sentence contextual introductions and analytical summaries
- Adds standardised disclaimer paragraphs
- Produces tables for MS Word compatibility
- Integrates seamlessly with liveuamap.com to forecast developing situations
Use Cases
- Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Risk Forecasting: Provide decision-makers with actionable insights across multiple timeframes.
- Early Warning System Development: Identify observable indicators and prioritize early signals to enable proactive responses to emerging threats.
- Strategic Planning and Decision Support: Inform corporate planning with structured, forward-looking analysis of geopolitical, regulatory, and economic trends.
- Crisis Trajectory Mapping: Forecast how ongoing crises might evolve and their potential impact on business operations.
- Regulatory Change Forecasts: Anticipate regulatory shifts and their implications for compliance and strategy.
RiskScenario
Scenario planning is a critical part of risk analysis, but it can be time-consuming and complex. RiskScenario automates the creation of plausible future scenarios, assigning probabilities and identifying indicators to help analysts focus on key uncertainties and potential outcomes.
For multinational businesses, RiskScenario offers a systematic approach to planning for potential disruptions and periods of high uncertainty and supports better decision-making in the face of potential crises or market shifts.
Key capabilities
- Develops 3-4 distinct, plausible future scenarios
- Assigns precise probability ranges using structured methodology
- Identifies observable vs. potential indicators and assesses their predictive ability
Detailed Features
- Uses seven-level probability scale (0-100% in defined increments)
- Produces scenario-specific impact assessments
- Uses check boxes for observed vs potential indicators
- Rates the predictive ability (high/medium/low) for each indicator
- Creates three-sentence contextual introductions, analytical summaries and standard disclaimers
- Formats content as a table for MS Word compatibility
- Documents internal reasoning
- Integrates seamlessly with liveuamap.com to map scenarios based on developing situations
Potential Use Cases
- Political and Security Risk Assessments: Simulate future scenarios to understand potential risks and their impact.
- Strategic Forecasting: Generate realistic, evidence-based scenarios to inform long-term planning.
- Business Continuity Planning: Prepare for disruptions by identifying potential crisis scenarios and actionable responses.
- Policy Impact Analysis: Assess how potential policy changes or geopolitical events might affect operations or markets.
- Crisis Planning Exercises: Train teams to respond effectively to high-impact, low-probability events by working through plausible scenarios.
- Regulatory Change Forecasts: Prepare for new regulations by exploring their potential impact under different scenarios.
FAQ
Who are the potential clients for CritonGroup AI?
CritonGroup AI is designed for organisations across industries, as the world itself has become increasingly volatile and high-risk. Potential clients include:
- Multinational corporations in sectors such as energy, finance, logistics, and manufacturing.
- Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) working in challenging environments.
- Risk consulting firms and corporate security teams looking to enhance their analysis and reporting capabilities.
CritonGroup AI is not limited to high-risk sectors; it is relevant for any organisation seeking to better understand and prepare for uncertainties in an evolving global landscape.
How do the three bots complement each other?
Each bot focuses on a distinct aspect of risk management:
- RiskMitigator: Provides rapid risk assessments and mitigation strategies tailored to specific contexts.
- HazardHorizon: Offers forward-looking risk outlooks across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.
- RiskScenario: Simulates plausible future scenarios to help organizations prepare for potential challenges.
Together, they provide a comprehensive approach to risk intelligence, combining real-time assessment, forecasting, and scenario planning.
What types of risks can the bots assess?
The bots can evaluate a broad range of risks, depending on the input and use case, including:
- Geopolitical risks: Political instability, armed conflicts, territorial disputes, sanctions, etc.
- Operational risks: Supply chain disruptions, infrastructure failures, workforce strikes, unrest, etc.
- Regulatory risks: Regulatory overhauls, evolving trade restrictions, compliance with extraterritorial laws, etc.
- Environmental risks: Extreme weather events, catastrophic natural disasters, critical resource shortages, etc.
- Economic risks: Currency fluctuation, global recession risks, inflation, etc.
How do the bots integrate into existing workflows?
The bots are intuitive and easy to use. The outputs are formatted as MS Word compatible tables or plain text, so they can be copied directly into external documents with minimal editing. Users familiar with tools like ChatGPT will find the bots straightforward to use, as they function in a similar way.
What types of input can the bots handle?
The bots can process inputs from various sources, including:
- News articles and breaking news items or summaries, copied via the URL
- Research papers, reports, and other non-sensitive documents
- Crisis mapping websites (e.g., liveuamap.com, ArcGIS).
- Uploaded documents, such as PDFs, draft texts, or structured data.
- Detailed maps and images
With a 128K context window, the bots can analyse longer documents (50-100 pages), or several documents uploaded at once.
What is the quality of the input, and what is the error rate?
About 80-85% of the output can generally be used as is, but some corrections or editing will be required, and the final results must be reviewed and verified by a human analyst or employee. Note that the quality of the input directly impacts the quality of the output—more comprehensive, detailed, and verified information will generally yield better results.
Can the bots handle real-time data?
Yes, the bots are designed to process and analyse real-time data from sources like:
- Crisis mapping tools (e.g., liveuamap.com, ArcGIS, etc.)
- Breaking news and updates
This allows trained analysts or users to generate risk advisories, mitigation plans, or outlooks ready to be sent to clients in 20–30 minutes, with minimal editing required.
Do the bots require technical expertise to use?
No, the bots are designed for ease of use. Anyone who has used ChatGPT will find the bots intuitive, as they operate in a similar way, requiring no advanced technical expertise but rather a good sense for suitable input.
Will the bots make human analysts or employees redundant?
No. The bots are not intended to operate independently of human input. Their outputs must be reviewed and verified by a human analyst or employee to ensure accuracy and reliability. The guiding principle is that the final output remains a product of human authorship, created with the assistance of AI tools. This distinction is also important for intellectual property (IP) and copyright purposes, as most current legislation does not fully recognize machine-generated content as eligible for protection under copyright laws.
How do the bots generate their insights?
The bots are powered by the latest large language models (LLMs), including those developed by OpenAI and Anthropic, using their advanced reasoning capabilities. Users input information into a text field, and the LLMs process this data by analysing patterns, extracting context, and generating concise, actionable outputs ready for use with minimal revisions or editing.
How is data handled by the bots?
When a user submits data via poe.com, the platform currently hosting the bots, publicly available large language models (LLMs), such as those developed by OpenAI and Anthropic, will be accessed via an API to process the input. Data handling is regulated by the terms of service of both the LLM providers and poe.com. Users are responsible for ensuring their inputs comply with these terms to uphold data security and privacy.
Can the bots handle sensitive, confidential or proprietary information?
No, the bots are not designed to handle sensitive, confidential or proprietary information since they are based on publicly available LLMs. Users should only input anonymised and non-sensitive data to ensure compliance with data protection and privacy best practices.
Are the bots compliant with data protection regulations?
The bots comply with the data handling and security protocols of their underlying third-party platforms. However, users should avoid inputting sensitive, proprietary, or confidential information to ensure compliance with global data protection standards.
Can the output of the bots be used in existing, client-facing products?
Yes. However, the output from the CritonGroup AI bots should always be reviewed and refined by a human analyst or employee to ensure accuracy, veracity and relevance. Additionally, inserting a disclaimer stating that the product is the result of human authorship with the assistance of AI tools is recommended. This is to comply with intellectual property (IP) laws, as most national legislation does not yet fully recognize machine-generated content as eligible for copyright protection.
Are the bots ready for commercial deployment?
The bots are currently in the beta stage and are being hosted at poe.com as a proof of concept without intention to commercialise them on this specific platform. However, they have already demonstrated proven success in real-world applications, and are available for trial runs.
Are the bots available for a trial run?
Yes, the bots are available for free trial runs to interested and suitable potential partners through the poe.com platform. To access the trial, please contact me to determine eligibility and discuss partnership opportunities.
What are the planned future developments for the bots?
The CritonGroup AI bots are continuously evolving. Updates are regularly implemented to ensure that the bots leverage the latest LLMs, providing state-of-the-art performance and accuracy. Ongoing developments focus on:
- Adding new functions and features to enhance overall usability
- Delivering more tailored and actionable results
- Reducing hallucinations and improving precision
The ultimate goal is to develop a comprehensive copilot app that enables clients to produce highly effective risk intelligence with minimal effort.
A First Success Story
While the bots are considered to be in beta stage, they have been successfully integrated into a senior analyst’s workflow since March 2024, delivering consistent, high-quality outputs for client-facing weekly risk reports and bespoke country risk assessments. This has resulted in substantial improvements in both productivity and output quality, providing considerable value to the client in a critical situation.
Client: Fortune 10 hydrocarbon multinational
Challenge: Operating in a high-risk country in Africa, a major oil and gas multinational faced significant challenges due to rising insecurity and direct attacks on pipeline infrastructure. These risks threatened the client’s operations, workforce safety, and long-term strategic position in the region.
Solution:
- RiskScenario prepared the organization for four potential crisis scenarios, equipping decision-makers with actionable plans for each.
- Using RiskMitigator, the analyst identified and assessed key risks, providing targeted mitigation measures tailored to local conditions.
- HazardHorizon delivered forward-looking insights on emerging threats and their likely trajectory, enabling better long-term planning.
Outcome: The company ensured the safety of its expatriate workforce, restructured operations to mitigate risks, and strengthened its long-term strategic position in a volatile environment. Additionally, the turnover time for producing monthly in-depth country risk reports was reduced to just two weeks, significantly improving efficiency and decision-making speed.
Why Choose CritonGroup AI?
- Save Time: Simplify complex risk analysis workflows, reducing turnaround times from days to hours.
- Improve Accuracy: Generate consistent, reliable, and actionable insights tailored to specific requirements.
- Stay Ahead: Identify and prepare for high-impact risks before they escalate, enabling proactive decision-making.
- Boost Productivity: Automate repetitive tasks, freeing up time for more critical and strategic activities.
- Streamline Reporting: Deliver structured outputs in formats ready for seamless integration into reports and plans.
Let’s Collaborate
The CritonGroup AI suite is currently in its beta stage but has already demonstrated its effectiveness in real-world applications. With proven results in improving productivity and enhancing risk assessment outputs, these tools are designed to redefine how businesses approach uncertainty.
If you’re interested in exploring how RiskMitigator, HazardHorizon, and RiskScenario can support your organisation, I’d be happy to schedule a demo and discuss how these tools can meet your specific needs.
Get in touch with Simon at LinkedIn.